Video Summary
The Fed may tighten this fall (rates and/or balance-sheet action) to regain credibility with the bond market.
Those actions could cause a near-term 15–20% equity correction, but Darius expects the pain to be brief.
Geopolitical factors, foreign selling, and AI capex are straining Treasury demand and lifting bond yields.
Structural fiscal pressures and politically protected spending sustain higher interest expense and deficits.
Quantitative models (KISS & Dr. Mo) have already begun de‑risking; surprise dovish Treasury refunding could blunt a crash.
Dale says the Fed may need to tighten (rates or balance-sheet) to restore credibility with the bond market and attract capital amid rising implied neutral rates and foreign selling of U.S. treasuries.
Hiking rates or shrinking the balance sheet would convert monetary tailwinds into headwinds for rate‑sensitive sectors and risk assets, potentially triggering a swift correction similar to 1998 dynamics.
No — Dale is not calling for a recession. Private‑sector growth and AI capex remain hot, but growth is expected to moderate over the next 12–18 months.
A surprise dovish Treasury refunding in Q3/Q4 or Fed actions that quiet the bond market (a credible 'action pass') could avert a deep correction.
Quantitative models like KISS and Dr. Mo have started de‑risking exposure to equities, incorporating stocks, gold, and bitcoin, and some managers advise option hedging and smaller position sizing.
"In order to take the steam off the boil from the perspective of inflation... they should probably punch it in the gut a couple times."
The Federal Reserve is focusing on controlling inflation and restoring its credibility with the bond market, after years of loose monetary policy.
To address rising inflation, it is suggested that the Fed should take assertive actions regarding its balance sheet, as these decisions impact financing dynamics and the broader economic landscape.
While the goal is not to entirely disrupt the business cycle, there is a sense that measured tightening is necessary to stabilize market conditions.
"There's a number of things that I want to talk with you about today."
Adam Taggart introduces Darius Dale, indicating that their discussions are focused on the latest macroeconomic developments.
Darius mentions that he has shifted from a bullish stance to a more bearish outlook for the short term, particularly as risks of a market correction similar to that of 1998 are rising.
Taggart inquires if any recent data changes might have altered Darius's perspective on the economy and the administration's strategies moving forward.
"There is a geopolitically driven supply and demand imbalance in the Treasury bond market."
Darius highlights the significant impact of geopolitical dynamics on the U.S. Treasury bond market, stating that various nations are becoming net sellers of U.S. debt.
The ongoing conflict in Iran and its effect on oil prices contribute to these pressures, which the Fed cannot directly control.
Countries like Japan and China are adjusting their foreign reserve strategies, which influences their purchasing of U.S. treasuries and adds complexity to global financial stability.
There’s also a noted "capital war" with rising demands in sectors like AI technology outcompeting traditional investments, particularly in U.S. government securities.
"If you do not tighten monetary policy to attract these incremental units of capital to the Treasury bond market, then we're going to sell treasuries."
Darius asserts that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to shift its monetary policy more aggressively due to escalating inflation and external demands.
Market estimates show that the neutral policy rate has increased significantly, signaling that the Fed must tighten its policy to draw in capital.
If the Fed fails to adapt, there’s a risk that capital will flow away from U.S. treasuries in favor of opportunities that present higher potential returns.
The current economic environment illustrates a heightened urgency for the Fed to respond effectively to maintain investor confidence and stabilize the bond market.
"The Fed needs to hike at least once, or a maximum of twice, just to return to neutral and stop applying upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on bond prices."
The Federal Reserve's current funds rate stands at 3.63%, which is below the implied neutral rate of approximately 3.90% in a cutting cycle or 4.15% in a hiking cycle. This suggests that the Fed must adjust rates to avoid continued inflation and bond market issues.
A failure to tighten monetary policy could keep the market in a mildly accommodative state, which disrupts the long-term bond market dynamics.
It is argued that tightening should be done carefully, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, which are still recovering from recessionary pressures.
"The only components of GDP that are growing right now are consumer spending and AI capital expenditure, which are largely interest rate sensitive sectors."
Despite the broader struggles of the economy, consumer spending and advancements in AI capital investment are notable areas of growth, contributing significantly to GDP.
As high-income consumers drive spending, interest rate-sensitive areas may not withstand additional rate hikes, particularly if the Fed only implements minor adjustments.
The analysis indicates that the Fed should consider using the balance sheet to adjust monetary policy without severely hampering the business cycle.
"We still think this is a structurally supported risk asset market, but the tailwinds from monetary policy may soon become headwinds."
The overall market outlook has been positive primarily due to factors including GDP growth impulses and consumer spending.
However, as the Federal Reserve navigates potential rate hikes, the previous positive impetus from monetary policy may shift to a headwind, posing risks to market stability.
If rate adjustments occur, this could lead to significant corrections similar to past market disturbances, specifically if the Fed fails to establish sustainable easing.
"The market rallied 21% from December to July, only to give it all back and then some, illustrating possible volatility ahead."
Reflecting on past market scenarios, particularly the correction observed in 1998, a significant risk exists if the Fed's monetary policies are not executed effectively.
Historical patterns indicate that while markets can rebound sharply, they can also retract quickly, revealing the volatility linked with shifts in monetary policy and economic indicators.
This analysis serves as a caution, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of the Fed's decisions, especially in the upcoming months regarding interest rate adjustments.
"The Fed may want to step in to prevent the situation from getting worse."
The Federal Reserve appears to be motivated to intervene in the markets as certain conditions develop, specifically in the bond market, which is critical to overall financial stability.
This intervention could lead to a short-term correction in the stock market; however, it is expected to be a temporary measure.
If the Fed's actions are not overly drastic, they may slow down the market's momentum but not derail the underlying business cycle.
"At the end of the day, the bond market is in charge."
The bond market remains a crucial indicator of economic health and dictates much of the market's movement.
Recent signals from global bond markets indicate that there is a significant pushback against excessive inflows, particularly in sectors like AI, which appears to be soaking up capital at an unprecedented rate.
This rising demand for capital can create pressures in bond yields, as evidenced by soaring returns in various countries, including the U.S. and the UK.
"This is a clear signal that our savings rate is gradually rising across all these economies."
A significant observation is the trajectory of global savings, which serves as a proxy for understanding capital supply and demand.
Data reveals a shift from the previously stable period known as the "great moderation" to a more unstable environment characterized by lower long-term growth rates in global savings.
Current fiscal circumstances, including widening deficits in several countries such as the U.S., Japan, and China, indicate rising pressure on the available capital.
"We've got this permanent structural widening of our fiscal balance."
The U.S. budget is under significant strain, with projected spending categories like Medicare and social security showing no signs of reduction and potentially increasing.
Approximately two-thirds of federal spending is allocated to politically protected categories that are compounding at rates exceeding nominal GDP growth, currently hovering around 9%.
Despite strong nominal GDP growth, the budget deficit remains unaffected, raising concerns for future fiscal balance when economic growth inevitably slows.
"We're easily at a 10 to 15% budget deficit annually."
The discussion suggests the potential for the U.S. budget deficit to significantly widen, potentially doubling given current fiscal trends.
If economic conditions were to worsen or if a recession were to occur, projections for the deficit could escalate even further, exceeding expected levels.
Despite these worrying trends, there is not an immediate call for recession; rather, the focus remains on understanding long-term structural economic strategies.
"Asset markets, which is stocks booming and bonds selling off, is exactly what we forecast."
The discussion highlights the contrasting performance of asset markets, with stocks experiencing significant growth while bonds are witnessing sell-offs, reinforcing prior forecasts about the market dynamics.
The speaker expresses confidence in the validity of their past calls regarding economic trends, including a general forecast of a likely decrease in economic growth over the next year.
This anticipated decline is attributed primarily to two factors: the peak impulse from the ABBA model expected in 2026 and the diminishing effects of past monetary easing on the economy.
"It'll probably decrease for two reasons."
The speaker predicts a decrease in economic growth, forecasting a transition from the current peak towards lower growth rates as various economic stimuli fade over time.
They refer to an analysis by the CFRB, which projects a decline in growth rates into 2027 as previously strong monetary policies lose their effectiveness.
Although the stock market may continue to rise and support consumer spending, any slowdown in this growth could negatively impact household consumption dynamics.
"We're now growing at 7% year-over-year, well above trend."
The dialog examines a notable acceleration in bank credit growth, which has transitioned from an underwhelming 4% year-over-year increase to a healthy 7%.
This shift is facilitated by recent relaxations in bank regulations, creating a more inviting environment for credit expansion.
However, there is caution regarding a possible deceleration in credit growth that could lead to a subsequent slowdown in GDP growth in future quarters.
"An accommodative Federal Reserve contributes to upside risk on inflation."
The conversation explores risks within the bond market, particularly emphasizing the Federal Reserve's ongoing accommodative policy stance.
Participants argue that failure by the Fed to respect the signals from the forward rates curve could jeopardize bond prices and increase inflationary pressures.
Addressing these concerns, the speaker suggests that the Fed needs to adopt a more hawkish approach to regain credibility in its inflation-fighting efforts, which have been undermined recently.
"An economy with less variance is ultimately a good thing long term."
The dialogue concludes by suggesting that fostering an economy with reduced volatility is preferable for long-term stability, despite the potential for increased term premiums in the short run.
Participants reflect on historical economic fluctuations, indicating a desire for more sustainable growth patterns moving forward.
By recalibrating monetary policy and allowing markets to respond organically to economic conditions, the prospect of a healthier financial landscape emerges, with less dramatic boom and bust cycles.
"All it's going to do is just crowd out the private sector."
Government spending is increasingly displacing private sector involvement in the economy, particularly since the global financial crisis (GFC). The ratio of private non-financial sector debt to GDP peaked at 172% in 2008 but has since decreased to around 140%, indicating a structural decline that has continued throughout the speaker's career.
As government spending grows, it transfers economic activity from the private sector to the public sector, benefiting corporations and individuals closely tied to governmental contracts. This includes substantial defense spending, expected to reach approximately $1.15 trillion, primarily benefiting large corporations such as Palantir, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin, alongside other established companies like SpaceX.
"It's coming at the expense of consumption and investment from households and small businesses at the bottom of the K."
The current financial landscape is creating significant disparities, as upper-income individuals see continued support in consumption while lower-income households and small businesses are increasingly repressed. The government’s budget allocation favors the wealthy, which can lead to broader economic consequences by squeezing the middle and lower classes.
As the youth, particularly Millennials and Generation Z, become the largest demographics in the workforce, many perceive the American Dream as unattainable due to rising costs associated with credit and housing. This lack of access leads to broader social implications, such as delayed family formation and increased marriage ages, which resonate in current political climates.
"It's sustainable in economic terms, but it may not be sustainable in political terms."
While the current economic strategies may provide short-term sustainability, they are likely to lead to political upheavals as younger generations begin to express their dissatisfaction through voting. The perception of a broken American Dream is a driving force behind these political shifts, especially as young people believe issues surrounding inflation and economic security remain unaddressed.
Notably, young people's concerns about rapidly evolving technologies like AI might catalyze increased voter participation, suggesting a potential shift in political power dynamics driven by generations that feel disenfranchised.
"A Federal Reserve that signals to the market that it is listening gives the market a sense of comfort."
The Federal Reserve's ability to adapt its policies in response to market conditions is essential for instilling confidence among investors. If the Fed indicates it is attentive to inflationary trends and willing to respond appropriately, it could stabilize the current economic environment.
The historical trend in monetary policy demonstrates an easing approach over time. By comparing past Federal Reserve actions to theoretical benchmarks, it is clear that the current monetary stance remains loose, which could facilitate a shift back toward tighter policies if market conditions warrant such a move.
"The bond market is essentially looking at these two charts and expressing that you are worse than Arthur Burns on several core metrics that we care about."
The current monetary base stands at 17% of nominal GDP, down from a peak of 27% in 2021, indicating a significant contraction in the monetary supply.
The bond market has lost confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to effectively combat inflation, as evidenced by a five-year track record suggesting the Fed lacks credibility.
There is a sentiment that the Federal Reserve needs to signal its willingness to regain control in the eyes of the bond market, which prefers to assert its influence.
"The bond market is saying, look, I’m just watching what you do. Forget about what you say."
The bond market is observing the actions of the Federal Reserve rather than paying attention to its verbal reassurances regarding inflation control.
Darius suggests that this situation presents an opportunity for the Fed to adjust its policies, potentially lowering borrowing costs once it acknowledges the bond market's demands.
As the inflation outlook changes, the Fed could pivot towards a more dovish stance if it can quiet the anxieties of the bond market.
"If you think about the friends of the five task forces, the data task force is going to produce an explicitly dovish outcome."
The task forces examining labor market metrics are expected to report lower employment growth estimates, indicating that the labor market may not be as robust as previously thought.
Historically, when productivity growth exceeds 2%, the 2-year nominal Treasury yield tends to decline, signaling to the Fed to lower policy rates to encourage non-inflationary growth.
An expected increase in productivity growth could lead to a scenario where inflation remains stable, allowing for more accommodative monetary policies.
"If they don’t try to regain some of that credibility on inflation fighting, you're going to see a 6% on a 30-year Treasury bond."
If the Federal Reserve fails to restore its credibility regarding inflation management, significant consequences for the bond market could follow, including a rise in Treasury yields.
Darius anticipates a potential correction in the market ranging from 15% to 20%, which, although distressing, is expected to be short-lived.
The defensive positioning of the models indicates a recognition of upcoming volatility, leading to a strategic shift away from risk assets.
"The KISS model we use for retail investors helps stay on the right side of market risk."
The KISS model incorporates stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, applying quantitative risk management to produce a positively skewed return distribution.
This model allows investors to capture upside while mitigating potential losses, thereby compounding returns without enduring significant drawdowns.
Recent adjustments in risk exposure suggest a more cautious approach as the model currently reflects a derisked strategy in anticipation of market corrections.
"These models do not know anything about my fundamental research views. What they care about are what other institutional investors are doing from a flows perspective."
The volatility adjusted momentum signals are based on various factors like stocks, Bitcoin, and others that the models analyze.
These models respond to flow trends but do not incorporate the investor's fundamental research views; instead, they react to institutional investor behavior.
A significant change in market trends is essential to monitor, as it can take many months for trends to materialize, signaling when adjustments might be necessary.
"Darius is not beginning to do anything. Darius has no human input on this system. It is a purely quantitative investment strategy."
The analogy compares the role of Darius Dale's models to that of a meteorologist predicting weather trends based on data, emphasizing that these models operate independently of personal judgments.
The KISS model acts like a weather vane that reacts to significant market movements rather than forecasting potential changes prematurely.
The correlation between macro research predictions and model responses provides a validation mechanism for investors, particularly when signals indicating market headwinds begin to emerge.
"Information itself doesn’t have value unless you put it into practice."
At Thoughtful Money, the focus is on educating investors and highlighting the importance of applying financial knowledge practically.
Darius' firm, 42 Macro, is endorsed as a valuable resource for DIY investors needing assistance in making informed decisions in a rapidly changing market.
The monthly macro scouting report contains a wealth of charts and analyses designed to keep investors informed of current and future market conditions with high precision.
"As a risk manager, the most important thing you can do for your clients is to signal when meaningful change is occurring."
The function of a risk manager is to monitor for changes and trends in the market rather than make speculative investments based on personal beliefs.
Key to the role is understanding when trends are changing, enabling proactive measures rather than passive participation in the market.
By consistently recognizing trends and responding accordingly, investors can promote long-term financial stability.
"The KISS model for most retail investors is very simple and systematic."
Darius's service provides ongoing data updates in manageable formats, allowing investors to stay informed about critical changes without overwhelming them with excessive information.
The KISS model is effective for retail investors seeking straightforward insights into market changes without the need for intricate analyses.
By utilizing this model, investors can focus on significant trend shifts and adjustments, ensuring they remain aware of important developments in their portfolio management.
"If the Fed doesn't bend the knee to the bond market, then the bond market's going to force it to."
The discussion highlights the tension between the Federal Reserve and the bond market, where the Fed must align its actions to avoid adverse consequences for financial markets.
The key focus is the projected borrowing of $739 billion by the U.S. federal government for the third quarter of 2026, with a significant portion accounted for by Treasury bills.
There is an expected increase in dovish financing policy from 20% to 61% in Q3 2026, reflecting a potential effort to stabilize financial markets amidst tightening monetary policy.
The analysis suggests that this maneuvering may help avoid a market correction similar to the summer of 1998, paving the way for a generally upward trend through the end of the year.
"We might not be seeing immediate storm clouds visible; let’s dig into that as well."
The conversation emphasizes the importance of continued monitoring and analysis of financial trends to understand market dynamics.
Darius commends the value of repetitive discussions on financial indicators and their potential impact on market conditions as they evolve.
Such dialogue will inform future conversations, allowing for a deeper exploration of whether current indicators predict a downturn or continued positive momentum in markets.
"We are fortunate that folks from all walks of life, including very educated and engaged clients, look to us to do this kind of work for them."
John and Mike from New Harbor Financial share their insights after Darius's detailed analysis, indicating the importance of data for investment decisions.
They stress the role of their firm in interpreting macro-level data to provide insights to their clients, who rely on their expertise for financial planning.
There is a recognition of ongoing market trends, especially in light of the current stock market bubble, suggesting that the analysis will guide future strategies.
"Broadly speaking, we would describe our battery of indicators as being strongly bullish."
The speakers describe their analysis framework, which involves a broad array of market indicators to assess investment positioning.
The importance of considering relative strength and market breadth is underscored, as they observe a positive shift in smaller cap stocks compared to larger mega-cap stocks, indicating a healthy broadening of the market.
They present evidence that market dynamics are shifting, suggesting an environment where small caps are increasingly gaining strength, contrary to previous trends focused on larger companies.
"The small-cap fund core has stayed somewhat more resilient than the large cap."
Recent market trends indicate that while the market has experienced a soft pullback, smaller-cap stocks have demonstrated greater resilience compared to large-cap stocks.
This shift suggests a healthy market rotation away from just the mega-caps and technology sectors into a broader range of investments, reflecting stronger underlying market dynamics.
"For much of the past couple of years, folks have heard that market breadth was very poor."
Historically, the market has been characterized by narrow breadth, where only a few sectors or stocks were responsible for driving overall market performance.
The current market conditions, however, show signs of improved breadth, which is generally considered a positive indicator for the health of the market.
"The Mag Seven complex got a bit oversold, but the whole complex is probably still overvalued."
Despite some recent recovery in high-tech sectors, there remain significant questions about their valuations and future cash flow prospects, particularly concerning AI spending predictions.
Analyst forecasts suggesting high earnings growth over the next five years may not be reliable, indicating a need for caution in interpreting these projections.
"No system is perfect, and it’s important to get durable trends and mitigate the likelihood of getting whipsawed."
Effective market strategies should prioritize identifying durable trends while avoiding knee-jerk reactions that can lead to poor investment decisions.
Implementing a weight-of-evidence approach allows for more strategic decision-making without attempting to time the market perfectly, focusing instead on long-term trends.
"We do think there’s a very plausible scenario for a blow-off top."
Many analysts believe the current environment may indicate an asset bubble, potentially culminating in a significant price surge followed by a correction.
While recognizing the potential for continued market upside, it is essential to monitor market breadth and participant engagement, as narrowing participation may indicate risk in overstaying market positions.
"The current rally looks like it’s got legs."
The data suggests that the recent market rally has substantial momentum and is worth participating in, despite potential risks of a blow-off top.
A defensive approach is necessary to mitigate downside risk, using strategies like option hedging to ensure some level of protection while remaining invested.
"Even if indices are not doing their thing, there can be rotation within sectors."
Darius highlights that despite a lack of noticeable movement in market indices, there is considerable rotation happening within different sectors. This suggests that not all areas of the market are stagnating; instead, some are gaining strength while others are losing momentum.
The discussion introduces a fund score system ranking sectors from highest to lowest based on performance metrics including price trends and relative strength.
Technology has seen a decline after previously being strong, indicating shifting dynamics within the market.
"We got out of financial stocks last fall and entered things like energy."
The team shares their strategic shifts, reflecting a proactive management approach in investment tactics. They exited financial stocks due to poor performance and moved towards sectors like energy, which began to show improvement ahead of significant events like oil price spikes.
Recent investments have included areas such as regional banks and healthcare, reflecting a broadening focus away from technology and into traditionally lagging sectors.
"We've seen a notable improvement here not only in the fund score but the directional change."
There is optimism regarding the improvement in sectors like healthcare and banks, evidenced by their rising fund scores.
These changes indicate a healthy market environment where a variety of sectors are contributing positively, moving beyond just a focus on tech and AI.
"Their job is to come up with an investment strategy based upon what they think is most likely to happen."
The conversation emphasizes the importance of a data-driven approach to investment management. The team adapts their strategies based on real-time changes in market conditions, rather than being tied to ideological beliefs about specific asset classes.
This adaptability is characterized as critical for managing risk effectively, aligning with clients’ goals to avoid significant losses rather than just seeking gains.
"Precious metals have been consistently weak for quite a while."
The discussion turns to the precious metals sector, which has faced ongoing weakness. Technical indicators and market trends reveal that both precious metals and mining stocks have struggled since a peak in January.
Recent performance data shows a significant daily jump in gold futures, sparking curiosity about whether this might signal an upward reversal for the sector.
"We're starting to see some really good things."
Analysts express cautious optimism regarding the recovery of precious metals, suggesting potential upward trends based on current data and charts.
The analysis highlights a potential breakout from a downtrend, particularly in silver, signaling possible recovery progress that market observers should monitor closely.
"Historically, there have been significant drops, such as in 2008 when the market fell by 50%, but then rose three times thereafter."
The discussion references historical market patterns, highlighting that significant market corrections, like those in 2008 and 1973-1974, can precede substantial bull markets.
Currently, the view is that the market might just be undergoing a significant shake and may still be in a larger bull market due to the ongoing "fourth turning" climax, an increasing debt scenario, and the recognition that quantitative easing (QE) is central banking's answer to economic issues.
It's acknowledged that it's challenging to maintain a bullish outlook when market data appears weak and clients are anxious about their investments.
"Gold is currently showing signs of a trend change, which could indicate better days ahead for bull market participants."
There is an observation made about the performance of gold and silver, both showing signs that could be favorable for traders and long-term investors if they break key trend lines.
The performance of Silver (SLV) and Gold (GLD) ETFs is analyzed, indicating that traders are closely watching these movements for potential entry points.
The concept of 'bullish percents' is introduced, which measures stocks' buy and sell signals within an index, suggesting an extreme washout in the current market conditions.
"Maintain your position sizes in check; don’t get greedy, as market corrections often occur within the context of larger trends."
It is recommended that investors consider their position sizes carefully and avoid overexposure during market volatility, even as historical trends suggest recoveries could occur post-correction.
There's emphasis on not overstaying a trend and being strategic about profit-taking, especially after significant drops in stock prices.
The advice is not to go all-in on a market rebound but to enter positions gradually while keeping an eye on market indicators and potential trend shifts.
"Current price actions in gold and silver suggest potential early indications of a trend change that can provide opportunities for traders."
The discussion shifts to observations about potential trend shifts in the gold market, contrasting it with traditional breakout indicators.
This trend change signals a bottom-fishing opportunity, allowing traders who have been patient during downturns to capitalize on future movements.
For those considering entry, strategic positioning is vital; implementing a staggered buy approach may mitigate risk while allowing for participation in potential gains.
"The summer is a good time to evaluate your financial goals and make necessary changes before the year ramps up."
The transition from summer to fall is highlighted as an optimal period for individuals to reflect on their financial positions and set new goals.
The contrasting mindset of individuals being distracted by summer leisure provides an opportunity to return refreshed and focused on financial planning.
It's suggested that individuals collaborate with their financial advisors during this period to ensure their financial strategies align with their goals before the busy end-of-year season begins.
“Why not use this time now to set yourself up for a winning strategy for the rest of the year and save yourself all that panic?”
As the year draws to a close, many individuals find themselves in a last-minute frenzy trying to accomplish various financial tasks.
It is suggested to utilize this time proactively to develop a solid financial strategy instead of scrambling as the deadlines approach.
Taking vacations before the end of the year is encouraged, as time is a valuable asset that once lost cannot be regained.
“You still have plenty of time, but use it to start to get your focus here.”
Clients are encouraged to start focusing on strategies like Roth conversions, which have become a prevalent topic of discussion.
Advisors have been working with clients to effectively manage their tax brackets through smart financial planning.
Future tax rates remain uncertain, making it vital for individuals, especially those with reduced income due to retirement or layoffs, to consider tax-efficient strategies.
“Be careful about things like IRMAA, which can result in surcharge on Medicare.”
Caution is advised regarding the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA), which can incur additional charges for Medicare beneficiaries with higher incomes.
It is recommended to address these tax planning issues now while there is still bandwidth, rather than waiting until year-end when the pressure increases.
