Video Summary
Use the first hour's dealing range (not the 30-min opening range) to set daily reference levels and intraday targets.
Current bias: bullish dollar, bearish euro and pound; watch volume imbalances and minor buy/sell-side pools.
Fair value gaps and candle bodies/wicks signal stop hunts, rejection blocks, and probable continuation moves.
Risk guidance: paper trade, avoid overleveraging, and trail stops using recent candle highs to protect positions.
Expect holiday-volume quirks; back-test setups and log trades to improve execution and psychological discipline.
The first hour's dealing range is the price range formed during the first hour of trading (distinct from the 30-minute opening range). The presenter writes it down to anchor intraday levels, identify fair value gaps, and forecast likely afternoon moves or retracements.
Bodies are treated as the primary narrative (true acceptance or rejection of price). Wicks are often used to manipulate perception or hunt stops; bodies give higher-probability signals for continuation or reversal.
Paper trade setups first, avoid overleveraging, and consider aggressive trailing stops (e.g., based on the last three candle highs) to protect gains and limit catastrophic losses.
Fair value gaps are areas where price moved quickly leaving an execution imbalance. The speaker identifies them as zones for stop hunts, rejection blocks, or targets for continuation when bodies confirm direction.
The presenter is bullish on the dollar and bearish on EURUSD and GBPUSD, citing volume imbalances, inversion fair value gaps, and recent price structure as supporting evidence.
"We're looking at the dollar index and I mentioned how we were looking at this little volume imbalance as a potential issue."
The speaker begins by checking the audio while casually mentioning background sounds, indicating that his wife is making homemade dog food. This sets a relaxed tone for the live stream.
He explains that they will be analyzing the dollar index and highlights a recent volume imbalance, suggesting its significance in current market dynamics.
The speaker notes their bullish stance on the dollar and bearish outlook on Euro dollar and pound dollar, stating that current movements support this bias.
Specific technical points are made regarding a minor buy side or resistance, indicating that while there may be fluctuations, the overall trajectory looks promising for the dollar’s strength.
"Price can stay inside that wick, and the bodies did, in fact, do that very thing."
The discussion shifts to the Euro dollar, where the speaker emphasizes the importance of price action within specific wicks and fair value gaps, which reveal the underlying dynamics.
He highlights that while price movements may oscillate, significant boundaries have been established. The wick serves as a ceiling, suggesting stability around this price.
The speaker instructs viewers to utilize Fibonacci levels from specific candlestick closures, implying that this could indicate continuing downward pressure on the Euro dollar.
He identifies a minor sell-side liquidity pool that aligns with their analysis, indicating that careful monitoring will be required in the upcoming trading week due to the influence of holiday volume.
"As long as we remain below this inversion fair value gap, I'm looking for significant moves lower."
Transitioning to GBPUSD, the speaker describes how recent price action has adhered to an inversion fair value gap, helping to solidify their market view.
He outlines a broader market sell model that suggests potential shifts in price trajectory due to consolidation and accumulation phases.
The speaker stresses that if the price remains below a critical fair value gap, it opens up possibilities for notable downward movements, indicating opportunities for traders to capitalize on short positions.
This commentary illustrates the importance of understanding market structure and using technical indicators to guide trading strategies effectively.
"I absolutely believe it's going to go to zero."
The speaker expresses a strong belief that Bitcoin will eventually drop to zero, despite others’ skepticism. They emphasize this perspective as they acknowledge that some viewers may wish for Bitcoin to rise to a million, insisting that such a financial outcome is unrealistic.
Mentioning a specific price target, the speaker indicates that they aren't actively holding trades but remains open to the market's movements, suggesting a willingness to wait and see how things unfold.
"This would be my first half of the year objective for gold, then I'm done."
The speaker discusses gold, outlining a personal target for the first half of the year. They clarify that subsequent analysis will depend on new information and market events.
They highlight the importance of volume imbalances in trading, advising viewers to recognize those patterns in price action and make informed decisions when trading.
"If we take out that low again, I'm done with silver."
The speaker provides a target for silver prices while expressing disappointment with current trends. They emphasize that failure to reach specified targets might lead them to cease analyzing silver, illustrating their commitment to a disciplined approach.
They acknowledge the potential for silver prices to experience significant volatility, however, they warn viewers that their opinions may fluctuate based on evolving market dynamics.
"If you're listening to me, just paper trade."
The speaker advises against using real money when following their trading advice and encourages paper trading instead. They express concern about the influence of their words on viewers who might misinterpret their guidance.
This caution reflects the speaker's awareness of their influential position and desire to foster a responsible trading environment, emphasizing that trading should be approached with caution and not hastily.
"You're going to push the envelope in terms of what you're willing to take on as risk because you're so underwater."
The speaker emphasizes the dangers of overleveraging accounts, warning viewers that some may ignore this advice due to desperation, greed, or a desire to recover losses quickly.
There is a recognition that potential traders may feel encouraged by the speaker's accuracy and success, leading them to treat trading like a lottery, betting all their money on high-risk price movements.
A critical point is made that this mindset can transform manageable losses into catastrophic ones, solidifying the need for caution and prudent risk management among traders.
"If you say, 'I learned a lot from this. This helped me today,' that is the best way you can communicate to me."
The speaker prefers meaningful communication from the audience over showcasing profits or chart results, as it fosters a supportive environment without placing unnecessary pressure on the analysis process.
The speaker expresses concern that certain phrases may be taken as trading advice when they're not intended as such, creating a layer of anxiety when sharing insights.
Encouraging constructive feedback and engagement allows the speaker to better assist viewers while maintaining a positive and educational atmosphere.
"We have this sell side here, and ultimately, my six-month target is down here."
The speaker discusses the concept of sell sides and shares targets for the near future, specifically referencing last summer's lows as significant market levels.
A focus on price action is highlighted through the use of specific candles and volume imbalances, indicating moments of expected bearish movement.
The importance of analyzing previous market executions is emphasized, advising viewers to reflect on historical trades and patterns for better understanding and decision-making in current market conditions.
"If we get some kind of real crazy news... we might see more of that."
The speaker anticipates potential market movements based on geopolitical events, suggesting that external factors could significantly impact trading conditions.
There is a warning about preparing for potential disruptions, such as energy shortages, which could affect even high-value possessions if basic needs like gasoline are unavailable.
The advice is to prioritize preparedness over luxury purchases, stressing the unpredictable nature of current events and their possible repercussions in the market.
"If we don't gap below here and we open or close above this level, it could trade down to that consequent encroachment and then react off of that for a little bit of a retracement or pause."
"I want to see it gap below here on Sunday and then if we can over the next couple of trading sessions... it could go here and wrap it up."
"The price is what I'm anchored to here, you'll see that when we drop down into the one-minute chart."
"If you noticed the title of this live stream, it should say 'first hour dealing range.'"
"This is going to be labeled as regular trading hours opening range gap high, which is what you see abbreviated as RTH ORG high."
"Always anticipate the likelihood because there's a 70% likelihood that it's going to try to get to the midpoint of that opening range gap."
"What the algorithm refers to, which is the first hour's dealing range."
"It's not the opening range which is 30 minutes, but this is the first hour's range or first hour's dealing range."
The first hour of trading is crucial for identifying price movement characteristics. Unlike the 30-minute opening range, it offers a broader perspective on market behavior.
Traders should focus on the first hour's dealing range to capture essential market dynamics that can guide future trades.
"When we were trading down here, my concern was that eventually we're going to create some kind of a low."
The presenter indicates the necessity of recognizing potential market lows, especially after the initial trading session.
By analyzing price action within the first hour, traders can anticipate the creation of significant lows or highs influenced by market behaviors from earlier sessions.
"If you don't see it like this, you're going to miss some details that are helpful to you."
It's vital for traders to understand and identify price structures along with marks in the market.
Failing to grasp these concepts can result in missed opportunities that may offer beneficial insights regarding market movement.
"The first hour's dealing range, this is the fair value gap. Trades up to it, runs a short-term low, trades down, creates a low."
The concept of a fair value gap within the first hour's range serves as a vital reference point for the lunch macro retracement.
By understanding these fluctuations, traders can better position themselves for potential reversals or continuations.
"If we can trade below here, like we were doing here, this is in many ways a confirmation if you're going to trade the PM session."
Observing when candlesticks close below established price points provides confirmation for potential market direction.
Traders should prepare for further market drops if significant levels of support are penetrated.
"What we're doing is flipping retail logic upside down and attacking them with it."
The narrative suggests that professionals exploit retail traders' tendencies to chase after breakouts.
By understanding and manipulating these common behaviors, traders can find advantageous setups, such as turtle soup configurations, during market fluctuations.
"This was manipulation. They stopped it dead in your tracks because you all were doing what I told you not to do."
The trader reflects on market manipulation, highlighting how they anticipated price movements and how traders acted against recommendations, which resulted in losses for some.
They emphasize the importance of understanding market behavior at specific times, such as after 10:00 and how this information can be critical in making trading decisions.
The speaker discusses their experience with market influencers and how they believe their insights have global implications, even drawing attention from significant entities.
"That right there is what we're looking for. That is the false run."
The speaker identifies a specific candlestick pattern, indicating a false break or manipulation in the market, which can be pivotal for traders to recognize.
They explain the concept of “consequent encroachment” and how it relates to market rallies, illustrating how trading activity interacts with specific candlestick shapes and ranges.
The volatility observed in one minute can lead to substantial price shifts, which traders should be prepared for.
"If it turns on a dime and stops and goes lower, is that bullish or bearish?"
The speaker discusses the implications of price movements relative to fair value gaps, questioning the audience on their understanding of bullish versus bearish signals.
They delve deeper into the specifics of how price interacts with imbalances and market inefficiencies, suggesting that recognizing these patterns allows for better predictive capabilities.
The mention of trading sessions, especially post-1:00 PM Eastern time, indicates that traders need to be aware of changing market conditions throughout the day.
"As soon as it did this, it's over. The rest of the session, they knocked out anybody that's trailed stop losses."
The discussion about order flow emphasizes the importance of understanding the psychological aspect of trading and how market moves can trap traders.
The speaker highlights the concept of “liquidity runs” where price action can abruptly change direction to clear out stop losses, indicating a need for traders to be vigilant and adaptive.
They suggest that observational study and back-testing are crucial practices for traders looking to refine their strategies and avoid pitfalls in the market.
"Give me a thumbs up if you want me to do a week-long series of how you should back test and log as a beginner."
The speaker invites audience feedback on further educational content, focusing on the importance of back-testing as a foundational tool for traders.
They express a desire to share insights on personal trading notes and habits, reinforcing that practical, individualized learning methods are vital for success in trading.
The emphasis on documenting observations showcases the value of creating a personalized trading journal to evaluate performance and refine strategies over time.
"The bodies have shown you confirmation that this was just a stop hunt."
The bodies of the candles indicate a rejection at a specific price point, confirming that the market was just exhibiting a stop hunt rather than a genuine move.
This scenario indicates the potential for a next premium array to short against after clearing the fair value gap.
Observing the price movements, there is a rally followed by a drop, suggesting that a stop hunt occurred on the last movement without reaching the anticipated consequent encroachment.
"The bodies tell you the narrative. The wicks are allowed to do the damage."
It is essential to focus on the candle bodies, as they provide the primary narrative or story of the price action. In contrast, wicks are less critical and often used to influence the perception without changing the overall trend.
Recognizing the dynamics of candle formation helps in strategizing trades based on observed patterns, like identifying a rejection block formed by up-close candlesticks that lead to further selling opportunities.
"If we can close below this wick that was inside of the first hour's dealing range, that sets the stage for lower prices in the afternoon."
Closing below a specific wick from the first hour’s range is a strong signal that market trends may continue to move lower as the day progresses.
After breaking through the first hour's dealing range, the sell side demonstrated a clear breakout, reinforcing the signal for further price exploration downward.
Each established price level can be assessed for potential future movements, allowing traders to project where the price may go based on previous patterns and the current market flow.
"If you can't even meet me halfway, you're exceedingly weak; it's going to go the other direction."
If price action fails to reach a midpoint or significant level from a previous rally, it suggests weakness and the likelihood of a downward move.
Traders should monitor for such signs and prepare to adjust strategies accordingly, aligning with the established bearish order flow.
The anticipation of price movements should include not only the assessment of highs and lows but also a keen understanding of broader trends indicated by the first hour’s range, enhancing trading outcomes.
"I'm anchoring to the visual low of that rectangle and borrowing the 75 level, which represents 75% of the range that could be delivered if a full breakdown occurs."
The speaker emphasizes determining the trading range by anchoring to visual lows, which creates a reference point for potential market behavior.
By borrowing the 75% level, traders can estimate a significant portion of an expected range while recognizing that perfect market conditions may not be present.
He advises caution about holding positions overnight or over the weekend due to potential adverse market movements that could occur.
"What you could do is be aggressive about trailing your stop loss, helping you manage any open position."
The speaker suggests implementing a strategy for trailing stop losses, particularly in volatile market conditions.
By trailing stops dynamically, traders can protect unrealized profits and avoid losing substantial gains during price fluctuations.
The speaker emphasizes setting stops based on the last three candle highs, adjusting them as new price action occurs to maintain a favorable risk-reward ratio.
"If you're seeing things happen in price action that runs where it doesn't make sense, it's likely manipulation."
The discussion shifts to how certain price movements may indicate manipulation, particularly when they don't align with recognized market levels.
Identifying such anomalies in price can help traders develop their strategies and respond effectively to market signals.
The speaker highlights the importance of tracking these levels after establishing the first hour's trading range to better understand price movements throughout the trading day.
"As soon as I get the first hour range, I'm writing that down to anticipate the levels for the day."
Noting the significance of the first hour's range, traders can forecast price behaviors and potential turning points in the market.
The use of these levels can enhance trading strategies by aligning them with overall market liquidity and volatility.
The speaker encourages viewers to experiment with this method, blending it with their existing strategies to see if it adds value to their analysis.
"You have nothing held over you. You better pay me? No, I love teaching."
The speaker emphasizes their genuine passion for teaching and their desire to share knowledge without any financial obligation from the audience. They express that their teaching is freely accessible, highlighting their commitment to providing value and making education available to all.
Encouragement from the audience is welcomed, specifically in the form of likes, which serve as positive reinforcement rather than financial gain. This interaction fosters a supportive environment and indicates that audience engagement is appreciated.
"If you didn't like it, tell me on X what was bad about it. I might use it to improve teaching."
The speaker invites constructive criticism and values feedback as a tool for personal growth and improvement in teaching methods. They display openness to suggestions, indicating a dedication to refining their approach based on audience experiences and opinions.
This willingness to accept feedback underscores the speaker's commitment to delivering quality content and their belief in continuous development as an instructor.
