Who really won the Iran war

The End of the Iran War and Initial Consequences 00:00

"So the 103-day Iran war has ended today with the U.S. and Israel launching an unprecedented joint attack on Iran."

• The video begins with an announcement of the conclusion of the 103-day Iran war, during which the U.S. and Israel carried out a joint military operation that resulted in the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

• Following this attack, Iran retaliated by shutting down a significant portion of the world's oil and gas supply, specifically closing the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in economic disruptions that affected people globally.

• The war led to the highest gas prices in four years, indicating widespread economic implications from the conflict.

Assessing Victory and Goals of the War 00:56

"We are going to cut through the spin and ask, yes, who won and lost here and what did they win and what did they lose?"

• The narrator stresses the need to look beyond proclamations of victory and analyze who truly gained or lost from the conflict.

• A systematic examination is proposed, including the specific goals set forth by the U.S. and what was realistically achieved through the war effort.

• The overall objective is to assess how this event has reshaped international relations and stability in the region moving forward.

U.S. Objectives in the Iran War 04:20

"The goals important enough to the United States to start an entire open-ended war to achieve."

• The video outlines the three primary goals the U.S. aimed to achieve through the war.

• The first goal was to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, a commitment frequently reiterated by former President Trump, who insisted that Iran would never obtain nuclear weapons.

• The second goal involved the destruction of Iran's missile capabilities, as U.S. officials were concerned about the potential threat these missiles posed to American bases and allies throughout the Middle East.

• The final objective was to establish a regime change in Iran, drawing parallels to how the U.S. approached scenarios in Venezuela and Cuba, aiming to turn Iran into a compliant state.

Evaluating the Success of U.S. Goals 04:27

"But, you know, it's the funniest thing; exactly a year ago, the U.S. and Israel bombed a bunch of nuclear sites in Iran and Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear program had been destroyed."

• The video discusses how the U.S. repeatedly claimed victory over Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile programs but later contradicted itself as the conflict extended.

• Investigations led by American intelligence revealed that the nuclear program remained largely intact, taking away the claim that it had been obliterated, further complicating the narrative of success.

• The peace deal resulting from these military actions officially reached a status quo regarding Iran's nuclear program, ultimately negating the original goal of total dismantlement.

Unachieved Goals and Ongoing Concerns 06:49

"It’s crazy. It’s simply not possible to make a sovereign country dismantle the perfectly legal tools of their own national defense."

• The narrative points out the unrealistic nature of the demands placed on Iran regarding disarming its missile arsenal.

• Even after the war, reports surfaced highlighting that Iranian missile capabilities were still operational, contradicting victory claims issued by U.S. officials.

• This discrepancy reflects a historical pattern in U.S. foreign policy, where impossible demands are set as a means to justify a lack of meaningful engagement or diplomatic success with Iran.

Trump's Views on Iran's Missile Program 08:51

"If other countries have missiles, it's a little unfair for them not to have some."

• Trump suggested that Iran should have missiles to keep up with other nations, indicating a shift in perspective from the original goal of destroying Iran's missile arsenal.

• This reflects a larger pattern of failures in U.S. objectives regarding Iran, as the initial aim seemed to falter, leading to this unexpected concession.

The Political Goals and Failures of the U.S. 09:16

"This agreement is easier to understand if we divide it into three sections."

• The U.S. aimed for regime change in Iran, but the outcome showed no significant change in leadership and therefore does not count as a successful regime change.

• The initial provisions suggest both parties agreed to stop military operations and postpone critical nuclear deal negotiations, which translates to a lack of immediate gains for the U.S.

Financial Incentives in the Agreement 10:16

"The U.S. will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil."

• A significant aspect of the agreement allows Iran to reclaim access to $300 billion in revenue by lifting sanctions on oil, marking a considerable financial win for Iran.

• The lifting of sanctions would grant Iran access to an estimated $50-100 billion of its own frozen assets, funding that the country desperately needs for reconstruction efforts.

Israel's Strategic Objectives 11:22

"Netanyahu has been trying for decades to get the U.S. to help him topple Iran's government."

• Benjamin Netanyahu aimed for full regime change in Iran, believing it would significantly alter the dynamics in the Middle East in favor of Israel.

• One of Israel's objectives included occupying Southern Lebanon as a strategic move in response to Iran, seeking to take permanent control under the pretense of security.

Netanyahu's Political Maneuvering During the War 13:03

"Every time he was due to take the stand, a new Israeli offensive would cancel his court date."

• The conflict presented an opportunity for Netanyahu to delay his corruption trial, using the war as a pretext to avoid legal consequences.

• Polls indicate a negative reception towards Netanyahu’s handling of the war, suggesting that while he may capitalize politically in the short term, the long-term outlook is bleak.

Outcome Assessment of Israel's Goals 13:59

"The Iranian government remains secure and defiant as ever."

• Israel's aspirations for regime change in Iran have been proven unsuccessful, as Iran has demonstrated its ability to withstand external pressures.

• While Israel’s operation in Southern Lebanon may be seen as a temporary success, any long-term benefits are unclear due to contradictory commitments made in the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Iran's Goals in the War 17:28

"Surviving is not nothing when you're being attacked by a nuclear-armed superpower."

• Iran's primary objective was not only to survive the conflict but to inflict enough damage on the U.S. to negotiate financial reparations for rebuilding.

• Their strategic aim also included gaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, an essential international waterway, which is critical for their economic and geopolitical interests.

Iran's Control Over the Strait of Hormuz 17:57

"Iran defines its area of authority in the Strait of Hormuz, stretching from Kuh-e Mobarak in Iran down to Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates."

• Iran considers the Strait of Hormuz a critical region under its jurisdiction, emphasizing its influence over this strategic waterway.

• Historically, Hormuz was an open waterway, but during the recent conflict, it fell under Iranian control yet was effectively closed.

• Iran's strategy currently aims to reopen Hormuz while maintaining control by dictating who can cross and implementing fees for passage.

Assessing Iran's War Aims 18:25

"Iran's big goal is to establish deterrence over the United States."

• One of Iran's key objectives in the ongoing conflict is to create a deterrent effect against the U.S., which has historically threatened Iranian sovereignty.

• This deterrence stems from two decades of perceived threats following U.S. military actions in the region, and Iran seeks to impose significant costs on the U.S. to dissuade further attacks.

Economic Gains from the Peace Deal 18:54

"Iran can sell its oil - that's $60 billion a year, and it can access its money frozen in foreign banks."

• Under the terms of the recent peace deal, Iran stands to gain significant economic benefits, including the ability to sell oil, which could generate $60 billion annually.

• Access to previously frozen assets, estimated between $50 billion to $100 billion, is also included, but contingent upon achieving a comprehensive nuclear deal.

• Despite the optimistic financial prospects, there is skepticism regarding the realization of these terms, particularly concerning the nuclear deal.

Control and Fees in the Strait of Hormuz 19:41

"The big test for whether Iran owns Hormuz is whether they will get away with charging tolls for crossing."

• The ability to impose tolls on vessels crossing Hormuz would solidify Iran's claim of ownership over the waterway.

• The main contention lies between Iran's stated position of collecting fees for services versus the U.S. assertion that the Strait will remain toll-free.

• Upon closer examination of the agreement, there are indications that Iran might indeed implement transit charges after an initial grace period of 60 days.

Evaluating the Overall Impact of the War 20:50

"The U.S. categorically lost this war; Iran won it, and Israel was a mix, but they lost more than they won."

• An overall assessment of the conflict reveals that the U.S. did not achieve its strategic objectives and incurred substantial financial losses.

• The war has resulted in significant shifts in regional power dynamics, with Iran gaining leverage and the U.S. experiencing a diminished stance in the Middle East.

• The consequences of this war are likely to be felt globally, suggesting that while immediate outcomes are evident, long-term effects could unfold in unpredictable ways.