Video Summary
Clem sold into cash because he sees a high short-term risk of escalation and market unpredictability.
Gold is a wartime safety asset; bitcoin can spike as a 'flight' signal — bitcoin’s pre-attack surge was an early warning.
Market moves since the conflict began show broad capital outflows and high volatility, not a clean buying opportunity yet.
The Strait of Hormuz and Middle East infrastructure remain major tail risks; traders assign only modest odds to quick de‑escalation.
Clem will wait for a clear drop in volatility (narrower daily/weekly ranges) and a multi-month 'event horizon' before re-entering.
He cited elevated geopolitical risk and unpredictable political moves (notably comments from President Trump). He saw market signals of broad outflows and decided cash was the best protection until volatility and uncertainty ease.
He describes gold as a wartime safety asset and bitcoin as a flight indicator; a sudden bitcoin spike before attacks suggested informed actors were positioning for trouble.
He warned the mess could persist for up to a year or longer, with prolonged market and regional volatility before stabilization.
He'll look for a sustained drop in volatility — narrower daily/weekly ranges — and an 'event horizon' pushed out several months (roughly six months) before increasing exposure.
Traders assign only modest odds of quick reopening; the strait remains a central tail risk for oil, supply disruptions, and broader market uncertainty.
Clem cautions against using AI for trading on random market behaviors. He sees agentic AI as useful for personal productivity but limited in predicting unpredictable financial markets.
"America has already proven that it can't do anything about it. It had its shot and it fails."
"Gold is for war; Bitcoin is for flight."
"It's not a question of money. It's about whether they're going to actually do it."
"I got out on the Friday because I was just... I think I need to be in cash."
"In a crash, you expect violent rises."
"If everybody is heading for the exit, that is probably a good sign to get in."
"Traders are predicting a 51% chance that the Strait will be reopened by July."
Market predictions indicate a significant uncertainty surrounding the ongoing conflict, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz. The current assessments show only a slightly favorable outlook for de-escalation and reopening within the next three months.
The situation mirrors past conflicts, like Ukraine, where initial assumptions of a quick resolution turned out to be overly optimistic. Traders and analysts seem to draw parallel scenarios, indicating that volatility remains high.
Factors contributing to this volatility include geopolitical uncertainties and a fluctuating oil market, where prices have not reached previous highs, suggesting a complex interplay of supply and demand.
"America will just go right... if they don't behave, I’ll come back and do it again."
The discussion revolves around the potential outcomes of U.S. military involvement, highlighting a strategy of disengagement followed by re-engagement if necessary. This approach introduces significant unpredictability in the region and its economic repercussions.
Analysts speculate about the implications of a quick drawdown of U.S. forces, fearing much chaos would ensue, with the possibility of other conflicts arising, thereby expanding tensions across the Middle East.
The idea that the U.S. could leave matters unresolved could embolden various factions within the region, threatening an escalation of violence and instability.
"Capitalism works really fast on these things."
The impact of the ongoing conflict and the uncertainty surrounding it leads to a change in market dynamics, pushing from investment strategies to more reactive trading approaches.
Cleanup processes following conflicts are estimated to be lengthy, indicating a transition to a more cautious investment landscape, where longer-term strategies may be jeopardized by immediate needs and volatility.
With the region’s fragile infrastructures becoming increasingly exposed to external pressures, market participants must prepare for prolonged uncertainty before stabilization can occur.
"He’s killed that alliance. It’s an alliance that’s near enough dead."
The commentary highlights a troubling shift in U.S. diplomatic relationships, particularly with European NATO allies, which appears strained. The past administration's tactics may have damaged longstanding collaborative relationships essential for strategic global stability.
The reluctance of European nations to support U.S. initiatives in the Strait of Hormuz reflects broader concerns about the reliability of U.S. leadership, leading to hesitance in military deployments.
The overall perception of U.S. diplomacy as aggressive and tactical may deter allies from engaging in collective actions effectively, risking further alienation on the international stage.
"The current presidency is not a reliable ally and favors Russia."
The individual in question underscored that current diplomatic relations indicate America is not supporting its allies reliably, especially in regard to Russia's military actions.
Many nations in Europe, including Italy, France, and Spain, have now closed their airspace to American troops, signaling dwindling support for U.S. military involvement in international conflicts.
The implications of a weaker NATO alliance could lead to a more independently armed Europe, with the possibility of 500 million people forming a military superpower.
"America was fed up with paying for it all and that they had to get on and do it themselves."
The commentary reflects a shift in U.S. military strategy, where America seems to prioritize its focus on China while urging European nations to take up their military responsibilities.
This has resulted in a significant surge in European military companies, showcasing a shift to self-reliance in defense.
The statement also notes that this change in focus raises questions about how long America can maintain its leading role in global conflicts.
"War is going to kick off next year... China invading Taiwan."
Despite earlier predictions regarding a military confrontation with Taiwan, the current context suggests that such an invasion is no longer imminent.
The firing of generals within the Chinese leadership hints at internal disagreements about military strategies against Taiwan, showing caution among military ranks.
Observations indicate a potential change in focus from military action to a more survival-oriented strategy, reflecting lessons learned from other global conflicts.
"Everything except oil has fallen."
In light of current geopolitical tensions, various markets have responded differently, with Bitcoin, stocks, and gold recording declines while oil prices have increased modestly.
The increase in oil prices is seen as less than expected, indicating broader instability in the market.
The shift towards soft commodities highlights issues, particularly concerning fertilizers, that will impact agricultural yields and food prices in the coming season.
"I'm not a geopolitical analyst, but I can tell it's a mess."
The current market exhibits signs of a bear phase, characterized by slow, consistent declines rather than abrupt crashes.
Investors are encouraged to remain cautious and avoid entering the market until the situation stabilizes and volatility decreases.
The eventual reduction in volatility would likely create better investment opportunities as the market begins to stabilize.
"I'll be watching for a drop in volatility, an easing of uncertainty, which will be expressed by the daily or weekly range."
The speaker discusses their observations regarding gold, noting previous spikes in both gold and silver followed by crashes. They emphasize the importance of watching for changes in volatility and uncertainty in the market as indicators of when to re-enter investments.
They plan to seek "low-hanging fruit" opportunities once market conditions signify a return to sanity and stability, looking for assets that have become undervalued over time.
"If you're Shell or BP and you have a trillion dollars worth of hardware in the Middle East, it's not so good for you, is it?"
The speaker reflects on their investment in an oil stock, Ecuanor, particularly due to its North Sea operations, suggesting that it may be a safer bet compared to oil infrastructure in conflict-prone areas like the Middle East.
They express concerns about the vulnerability of aging infrastructures like wind energy, highlighting that such systems could easily be compromised in wartime scenarios. This has implications for national security and energy reliability during conflicts.
"Nobody needs a 50 million pound tank now; that is all gone."
The conversation shifts to the impact of new technology on warfare, particularly drones and AI, suggesting that traditional forms of military hardware are becoming obsolete.
The speaker observes increasing investments in companies that are hardening infrastructure against threats, as warfare evolves towards high-tech solutions like drones, tactical AI, and automated defense systems.
"I'll be moving back in again when the event horizon moves out into sort of six months."
The speaker discusses their strategic approach to investing, suggesting they have stepped back from the market until clear indicators of stability emerge, marking the distinction between periods of chaos and sanity in market behavior.
They also note that changes in market volatility, such as the width of daily trading ranges in the S&P 500, will signal when it is time to re-enter the market for future investments.
"Agentic AI could email my wife and even book a restaurant table for me."
The conversation explores the capabilities of agentic AI, highlighting its ability to perform tasks such as organizing emails and scheduling meetings. Clem discusses how he has utilized this technology for personal assistance, helping him manage his schedule and communications effectively.
He notes that agentic AI can pull relevant information from vast quantities of emails, making it easier for users to prepare for meetings and stay organized. In his own experience, this AI sifted through 2,000 emails to extract everything he needed for upcoming conferences.
"AI is just the tip of the iceberg; it can help manage calendars and even email jokes to me."
Clem shares specific examples of how he uses AI to streamline his daily tasks, such as populating his Google Calendar with meeting reminders and even personalizing communication.
This technology allows him to stay on top of his commitments while adding a layer of fun by sending personalized emails, like limericks, to friends or colleagues.
"AI doesn't work on random market behaviors; it thrives on structured data."
The discussion shifts to the use of AI in trading and investing. Clem warns that relying on AI for trading can be risky since financial markets are often unpredictable and random.
He emphasizes that while agentic AI presents exciting possibilities, its effectiveness in trading is limited by its inability to understand or predict random market fluctuations.
"We're likely looking at a two-year wait before seeing significant changes in crypto."
Clem anticipates that significant advancements in AI will emerge in the next six to nine months, especially regarding its influence on the cryptocurrency market.
He predicts a two-year timeline for a potential resurgence in cryptocurrency trading, indicating that patience and timing will be crucial for investors looking to capitalize on future market changes.
"Most of what I share is free, and people are finding success from my ideas."
Clem emphasizes that he shares valuable insights about investment strategies through various platforms, including a Substack and YouTube.
He encourages viewers to connect with him for more information on investment philosophies and to leverage free resources to improve their financial understanding.
