Aircraft, Radar systems, drones— What US has lost in Gulf war & lessons on aerial warfare

Losses of the US Air Force in the Gulf War 07:27

"The Americans have been upfront about their losses."

• The Gulf War commenced on February 28 and has now lasted a full month, revealing substantial damage across Iran and various Arab Gulf nations. Despite this widespread destruction, the specific losses sustained by American forces remained significantly unclear at the outset. However, US officials have started to disclose their losses, acknowledging that combat always incurs casualties.

• Evidence suggests that the US has lost a minimum of 20 aircraft, which includes both manned and unmanned systems like the MQ9 Reapers. These drones, critical to modern aerial operations, are sophisticated and costly, valued at around $16 million each. It has been noted that more than a dozen of these losses involve the MQ9 drones, with some confirmed to have been shot down by Iranian forces and others lost to accidents or operational damages.

• The fragility of aircraft and radar systems in combat is particularly concerning, as these high-tech assets require exposure to function effectively but are then vulnerable to attacks. For example, radar systems, once activated, emit detectable radiation that adversaries can exploit to locate and target them.

Damage to Radar Systems and Strategic Implications 11:08

"These radars are at this moment irreplaceable."

• The US has suffered significant setbacks not only in aircraft but also in radar systems, which are crucial for military operations. Radars are expensive and time-consuming to manufacture, requiring critical minerals that are often scarce, making replacements a challenge.

• Notable radar losses include a strategic site in Qatar, where an ENF FPS-132 radar was damaged. This radar is essential for tracking multiple targets across a vast range and plays a significant role in coordinating missile defense systems. The cost and logistics of replacing such a radar could extend from six months to a year, highlighting the operational vulnerabilities faced by US forces.

• Additional reports detail radar sites hit in Baghdad, including those associated with the US embassy. As the combat continues, these losses underline the critical importance of maintaining operational aerial capabilities while highlighting the challenges posed by modern warfare dynamics.

Damage to Key Military Bases and Radar Systems 11:18

"Significant damage has been reported to various radar stations and military bases across the Gulf region, crippling crucial defense systems."

• The attack resulted in damage to multiple key military bases and radar systems in the Gulf area. Noteworthy locations affected include the Muzafur Ali Sulfi air base in Jordan, Kuwait airport radar, and the radar stationed at the Bahrain fifth fleet headquarters, all of which were directly hit.

• The most critical impact occurred at Qatar's FPS 132 radar site and at the Alate base, as well as Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan air base where an ENTPY2 radar was struck on March 1.

• The ENTPY2 radar, valued at approximately $1.1 billion, is smaller than other advanced radars and serves as a vital component of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) battery, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles entering the atmosphere.

Importance of Radar Systems in Aerial Warfare 11:52

"The loss or damage to radar systems can severely undermine aerial defense capabilities."

• The THAAD system is critical for intercepting ballistic missiles, as it is able to engage them as they re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. This requires precise trajectory calculations made possible by effective radar systems.

• If these radar functionalities are compromised, it significantly hinders the ability of interceptors to gauge and respond to incoming threats, effectively making them "blind."

• The Iranian military's notable success in this conflict largely stemmed from effectively damaging key radar assets like the TPY2 systems.

Estimated Financial Impact on U.S. Military Assets 14:30

"Damage caused to U.S. military equipment has potential financial losses estimated between $1.4 billion and $2.9 billion."

• Assessing the full extent of the losses has proven difficult, with estimates ranging significantly due to the variable depreciation of military assets over time.

• Experts suggest that the overall damage suffered by U.S. forces is substantial, encompassing not only the loss of aircraft but also significant attrition of high-value equipment like the MQ9 Reaper drones and other military hardware.

• These drones, which initially cost around $16 million, are no longer manufactured and would need to be replaced with newer models costing around $30 million each.

Lessons from Historical Military Conflicts 21:10

"Combat losses are often shared by both sides, yet the context greatly influences the outcome."

• Historical data from previous conflicts like the Vietnam War illustrate that losses are not typically one-sided, highlighting the complexity of aerial warfare.

• In Vietnam, the U.S. lost a total of 2,251 aircraft, with most losses attributed to hostile actions rather than accidents. The Vietnamese forces faced substantial challenges engaging U.S. air capabilities with limited resources.

• The context of war often dictates loss patterns, indicating that each conflict has unique dynamics shaped by the capabilities of the fighting forces involved.

U.S. Aircraft Losses in Historical Context 22:03

"America lost 2,251 aircraft at a loss rate of 0.4 aircraft per 1,000 sorties."

• During the Vietnam War, the U.S. faced significant losses despite their technological superiority. They lost a total of 2,251 aircraft, reflecting a loss rate of 0.4 aircraft for every 1,000 sorties flown.

• The American air power had no credible opposition from the Vietnamese, who utilized early-generation missiles and some versions of MiG fighters, yet the losses were substantial.

• This pattern of loss is consistent throughout various U.S. military engagements, with significant historical examples shedding light on the realities of aerial warfare.

Lessons from Operation Desert Storm 22:57

"For 37 days, Americans and their allies carried out a relentless air campaign before launching the ground offensive."

• In 1991, during Operation Desert Storm, the U.S. launched an extensive air campaign that lasted for 37 days, executing approximately 100,000 sorties and dropping 88,500 tons of bombs.

• The campaign resulted in the loss of 52 fixed-wing aircraft and 23 helicopters, along with 46 aircrew members either dead or missing, and eight captured.

• Most losses were attributed to ground-based missiles, although there was a notable dogfight on January 17, 1991, where an American FA-18 Hornet was shot down by an Iraqi MiG-25.

The Realities of Aerial Warfare 24:44

"Air warfare is not a football match where you are counting goals; it's a brutal business."

• Aerial warfare inherently involves risks and attrition, regardless of one’s technological advancements.

• The losses experienced by attacking air forces highlight that, while they may have superiority in electronic warfare, casualties are still a part of the equation.

• Particularly in the context of the Gulf War, the U.S. experienced not only aircraft losses but also the destruction of crucial radar sites, including one that has an estimated replacement cost of half a billion dollars.